Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2198 · LAX → MSP
departs 3:22 PM PT · arrives 8:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.