Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
DL 2414 · JFK → MSP
departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 1:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.