Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2438 · ATL → SRQ
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
SRQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling 600 ft
Visibility 5 mi
Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 10 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.