Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2454 · TPA → LGA
departs 6:44 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±8 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.