Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2454 · TPA → LGA
departs 6:44 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.