Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2476 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 2476 · DCA → DTW

departs 12:23 PM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2476 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?