Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2500 · MIA → JFK
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 53%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.