Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2564 · MCO → LGA
departs 3:47 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 45%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.