Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2564 · MCO → LGA
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.