Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2656 · MSP → IAH
departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 9:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 8%
Sat 10/10 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.