Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2843 · MSP → BNA
departs 12:50 PM CT · arrives 2:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 9%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.