Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 2849 · MSP → DEN
departs 8:55 AM CT · arrives 10:03 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 11%
Fri 10/9 10%
Sat 10/10 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.