Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 1274 · MSY → PHL
departs 8:14 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at PHL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.