Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
F9 1431 · MCO → MSY
departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 13%
Thu 10/8 19%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.