Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 1431 · MCO → MSY
departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 2:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.74 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.