Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 2538 · TPA → PHL
departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 3:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 23%
Sat 10/10 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.