Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 2538 · TPA → PHL
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.