Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2538 · TPA → PHL
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.