Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 2635 · MCO → STL
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.