Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 2836 · TPA → PHL
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 1:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 54%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.