Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 2836 · TPA → PHL
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 1:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 54%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.