Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 2954 · TPA → IAD
departs 9:10 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Sat 10/10 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.