Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 3046 · MSP → ATL
departs 2:24 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 29%
Thu 10/8 19%
Fri 10/9 40%
Sat 10/10 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.