Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3469 LANDED 8:52 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

F9 3469 · MCO → IAH

took off 7:51 PM ET · landed 8:52 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3469 · MCO → IAH

Odds over time