Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3469 · MCO → IAH
departs 4:36 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.