Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 4004 · MCO → BWI
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
12%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
12%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.