Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 4004 · MCO → BWI
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.