Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4092 LANDED 10:58 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

F9 4092 · TPA → BWI

took off 8:37 PM ET · landed 10:58 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4092 · TPA → BWI

Odds over time