Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 4404 · MCO → PHL
departs 4:35 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 64%
Mon 10/5 38%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 27%
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.