Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4404 · MCO → PHL
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 51%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 38%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.