Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 4561 · MSY → DEN
departs 9:48 PM CT · arrives 11:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Thu 10/8 20%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.