Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 4781 · PHL → MSY
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 39%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.