Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
G4 2865 · SFB → TOL
departs 1:19 PM ET · arrives 3:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TOL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TOL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TOL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to TOL?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
TOL usually runs smoothly
↓
SFB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 1.04 in
TOL (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.