Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
G4 407 · JAX → IAD
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
IAD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.