Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3407 · AVP → ORD
departs 6:34 PM ET · arrives 8:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 26%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AVP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
AVP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AVP (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.