Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3450 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3450 · DFW → FAR

departs 9:15 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAR?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ FAR usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.13 in

FAR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3450 · DFW → FAR

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAR?