Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3450 · DFW → FAR
departs 9:15 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FAR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
FAR (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.