Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3506 · ELP → DFW
departs 1:41 PM MT · arrives 4:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at ELP that day
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.