Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3581 · HSV → DCA

departs 6:27 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ HSV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3581 · HSV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?