Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3693 · DFW → XNA
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 16%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.