Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3752 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3752 · ORD → HPN

departs 7:39 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into HPN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ HPN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,633 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.20 in

HPN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3752 · ORD → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?