Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3778 · SAT → DFW
departs 12:26 PM CT · arrives 1:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 56%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.73 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.