Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3791 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3791 · DFW → SDF

departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 12:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into SDF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.83 in

SDF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.82 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3791 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?