Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3791 · DFW → SDF
departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 12:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.