Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3798 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3798 · DFW → CID

departs 9:11 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into CID at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.57 in

CID (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,714 ft Visibility9.71429 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3798 · DFW → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?