Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3824 · XNA → DCA
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 10%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.54 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.