Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3832 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3832 · PHX → SAT

departs 7:38 PM MT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±6 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3832 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?