Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3832
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3832 · PHX → SAT
departs 7:38 PM MT · arrives 11:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.