Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3840 · XNA → DFW
departs 3:57 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 19%
Fri 10/9 16%
Sat 10/10 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.54 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.