Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
MQ 3843 · DFW → XNA
departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.56 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.